Evidence - Based Microsimulation Model for Colorectal B & P cer : Validation and Application

نویسنده

  • James E. Savarino
چکیده

ownloade kground: The Colorectal Cancer Simulated Population model for Incidence and Natural history (CRCis a new microsimulation model for the natural history of colorectal cancer that can be used for comve effectiveness studies of colorectal cancer screening modalities. thods: CRC-SPIN simulates individual event histories associated with colorectal cancer, based on the ma-carcinoma sequence: adenoma initiation and growth, development of preclinical invasive colorectal , development of clinically detectable colorectal cancer, death from colorectal cancer, and death from auses. We present the CRC-SPIN structure and parameters, data used for model calibration, and model tion. We also provide basic model outputs to further describe CRC-SPIN, including annual transition bilities between various disease states and dwell times. We conclude with a simple application that ts the impact of a one-time colonoscopy at age 50 on the incidence of colorectal cancer assuming three nt operating characteristics for colonoscopy. ults: CRC-SPIN provides good prediction of both the calibration and the validation data. Using CRCwe predict that a one-time colonoscopy greatly reduces colorectal cancer incidence over the subsequent rs. clusions: CRC-SPIN is a valuable new tool for combining expert opinion with observational and experl results to predict the comparative effectiveness of alternative colorectal cancer screening modalities. act: Microsimulation models such as CRC-SPIN can serve as a bridge between screening and treatment s and health policy decisions by predicting the comparative effectiveness of different interventions. As studie such, it is critical to publish model descriptions that provide insight into underlying assumptions along with validation studies showing model performance. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 19(8); 1992–2002. ©2010 AACR.

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تاریخ انتشار 2010